August 27, 2009

How would Utah/Boise State fare in the SEC?

With the successes of Utah and Boise State in crashing the BCS over the past few years there has always been this rebuttal Major Conferences levy against these non-AQ sqauds: They couldnt handle our schedule. So what would happen if Utah or Boise State were somehow inserted into the SEC for a season? How would they fare? The folks at Football Outsiders, using complex statistics have done precisely that. The story is posted on the ESPN insider and requires paid access. Here is a snippet:

How would these stand-out Utah and Boise State teams have done in the power conferences? We ran a set of retroactive projections for each team against the regular-season schedule played by the champion of each BCS conference to find out: How would they do? How would these 3 top non-BCS teams have fared in the major conferences? Parentheses indicate rank within division in that year.

Team ACC Big 12 Big East Big Ten Pac-10 SEC
2004 Utah 6-2 (T2) 7-1 (T2) 5-1 (1) 6-2 (T3) 6-2 (3) 7-1 (T2)

2006 Boise St 6-2 (T2) 6-2 (T2) 5-2 (T2) 7-1(T2) 7-2 (T1) 5-3 (T5)

2008 Utah 5-3 (T1) 6-2 (T2) 5-2(T2) 6-2 (T3) 8-1 (T1) 6-2 (T2)

According to this measure, each of the three non-BCS undefeated teams would have had the opportunity to win outright or share at least one league title in a BCS conference if it were given the opportunity to do so. The data also confirms the relative difficulty of BCS conference gauntlets versus those in the other leagues. While the 2004 and 2008 Utes and 2006 Broncos ran unscathed through their respective conference and nonconference schedules, none would have been likely to do so in any of the BCS conferences.

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