Week 5 Predictions

It was a really rough go for our staffers last week, but DJ has separated himself early in the season at 40-11. Brett is sliding toward mediocrity at 35-16. Overall standings are always posted in the sidebar so you can see how much we do or don't know. Conference play is starting to get under way, with some good non-conference games on the slate. Utah State and BYU kick off the weekend in the West with another Friday game. Here are our picks for week five:

UTAH STATE (1-2) @ BYU (2-2)
Friday Sept. 30 | 6:00 pm MT | ESPN

ZACH: Utah State certainly won't be weary of the big stage. (See Auburn) The Aggies have yet to prove they are capable of finishing games. BYU was dominated in every facet by USU in Logan last year. Both teams need a victory in a bad way. BYU O is ready for a breakout, and by breakout, I mean "ready to score 3 offensive touchdowns." BYU 27 USU 23
BRETT: One part of me says BYU hasn't proven anything on offense yet, so why pick them? But, can I really think Utah State can beat BYU twice in a row, and win in Provo? BYU is a shaky team primed for an upset. But, Utah State has shown it might not be ready to win, grasping defeat from the jaws of victory twice this season. So going off pure hunch here. BYU 25 USU 21
DJ: BYU may not have a high-ranking pass defense (because the Utah game), but I really think they may be a top 25 run d team. Utah State probably has the 3 best RBs in the state. BYU 26 USU 21
BRADFORD: BYU 24 USU 23

Go for two at home? You crazy, Utah State

USU coach Gary Andersen (ksl.com)

Let's play a game of Put On The Headset. It's the second overtime in a game you are coaching in your own stadium. Fans have a renewed vigor about your program after you and your freshman quarterback almost took down the defending national champs. You have out-gained your opponent 367-232 on the night, including pounding them into the ground with 281 rushing yards. It is a game your team has controlled from start to finish, but the 8-point lead you had with two minutes left was vanquished when your punt returner muffed a catch with just two minutes left inside your own 20.

In the second overtime, your team had possession last, and your running back beast Robert Turbin has just scored a touchdown. Down 35-34, at home, given all the above, you kick the extra point and go to a third overtime, right?

Not if you are Gary Andersen at Utah State, who fell to Colorado State in double overtime after not one, but two failed two point conversion attempts.

MWC Power Rankings: Week 4

by Bradford Christensen

Outside of Boise State beating Tulsa and Colorado State sneaking by Utah State, it was a pretty bad weekend for the Mountain West.


1. #5 Boise State 3-0 (0-0)
Kellen Moore only played 2.5 quarters against Tulsa but still threw for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns. The defense looked better but the Broncos need to get their running game straightened out -- 405 yards in three games and 3.4 ypc isn't going to cut it.
This week: vs Nevada 2:30 PM ET - Versus 

Brigham Young has Big 12 offer

Multiple sources have confirmed to The Upset that BYU has an official invite from the Big 12 Conference in hand and is currently poring over all details to make sure its negotiating points are satisfactorily met.

Key in the finalization of such a move is how BYUtv fits in to the Big 12, as well as how much of its current 8-year deal with ESPN BYU can keep. (It would make sense for both parties to keep it intact if contractually possible, as it would add both more money and exposure for all in the conference.) BYU officials are reviewing these details to ensure its wants can be met, which may end up in a renegotiation with Big 12 television partners ESPN and Fox if possible and/or prudent. While acceptance of this offer is not guaranteed, our sources indicate BYU definitely wants in if things can line up to BYU's liking.

Some editorial points:

An acceptance of the offer is not 100% guaranteed. As Dick Harmon of the Deseret News reported late last night, if BYU cannot obtain rebroadcast rights for football games or is not guaranteed the ability to use BYUtv to televise other sports, they will likely decline, or at least continue negotiating. But our sources indicate that BYU wants in and is efforting to make it work, whatever details may or may not be left to hammer out. Without saying as much, Harmon's story also implicitly leads that BYU has an offer: "If you hear reports out of Texas or Oklahoma that BYU is not interested in the Big 12, it is only an interpretation of BYU negotiating its talking points."

It is assumed all this is contingent upon the six-year media grant coming to fruition and being signed by the current nine members of the Big 12. Some schools have to go through a board of regents or similar body before officially agreeing to the media grant that would bind the conference together, so it seems that as of now, that agreement is still not official.

While concern over relationships with the schools in the West Coast Conference has been real, as we reported a month ago, such worries could be dissipating. ESPN's Andy Katz reported four days ago after a sitdown with WCC Commissioner Jamie Zaninovich, "If the Cougars did want to leave, they wouldn’t get held up by the WCC. The league fully understands that BYU may want to join a major football conference..."

The recent turns in the unfolding drama that has been the Big 12 Conference--and pronouncements from Larry Scott on Pac-12 non-expansion--seem to have BYU looking more favorably upon Big 12 inclusion. We had previously reported BYU's interest in aligning with both Notre Dame and Texas. One would assume the appeal of the Big 12 monetarily as well as for competition in non-football sports could ultimately lead BYU to the Big 12. BYU does still have a six-year scheduling agreement with Notre Dame in football. Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick has confirmed within the last two weeks that Notre Dame is still committed to football independence.

While BYU could still have a strong independent friend in Notre Dame, if it can maintain many of the same television freedoms it currently enjoys in independence to utilize BYUtv and its shiny new $100 million broadcasting building, but combine that with BCS money, BCS access, and a more premier league for basketball and Olympic sports -- it could be too good to pass up.

Locksley Fired at New Mexico

After losing to Sam Houston State yesterday, 48-45 in overtime, Mike Locksley has been fired as head football coach at New Mexico as the off-the-field Locksley circus continued. Last night, a New Mexico recruit was pulled over for driving under the influence in an SUV registered to Locksley (reportedly Locksley's son's car). Locksley piled up the following list of achievements on his resume in 28 games as coach of the Lobos:

• A secretary in the athletic department filed a sexual harassment suit against Locksley before the coach's first game at New Mexico
• Locksley reportedly punched and/or choked assistant coach J.B. Gerald
• A recruit was cited for DWI while driving a car registered to Locksley after measuring twice the legal limit for blood-alcohol levels
• 2-26 overall record (2-15 in MWC, 0-11 non-conference)
• 0-2 against New Mexico State
• Lost to Sam Houston State at 2011 UNM homecoming

Week 4 Predictions

It seems like every week, a whirlwind of conference expansion sweeps through college football. But here we are again, ready for another weekend of games. Here are this week's best games in the West with our predictions.

CENTRAL FLORIDA (2-1) @ BYU (1-2)
Friday Sept. 23 | 6:00 pm MT | ESPN

ZACH: Both the Cougars and the Knights need a victory. UCF traveling to altitude; BYU facing yet another quality opponent. This one is a tough, tough pick. I simply think BYU's offense is ready to get on track. The defense hasn't been the problem. UCF struggled last week against an FIU team it should have beaten. It will be interesting to see how the Knights bounce back. BYU 20 UCF 17
BRETT: What this BYU team needed, with a new offensive coordinator, was its November schedule in September. BYU's defense has been great, but wears down every game as the offense can't stay on the field. UCF will be tough. Sorry Cougs, you gotta show me more. UCF 23 BYU 16
DJ: BYU 24 UCF 21
BRADFORD: The Cougs are barely favored over UCF at home - are things really that bad in Provo? I'm thinking BYU bounces back after last weeks' debacle. BYU 24 UCF 20

Big 12 makes changes, commits for 6 years

The Big 12 Conference announced the following today after a meeting between all nine remaining schools:

• Dan Beebe has tendered his resignation as conference commissioner. Former Big 8 commissioner Chuck Neinas has been named interim commissioner, but will not be considered as a permanent replacement.
• The schools did not explicitly agree to stay together as a conference, but, all nine schools agreed to a 6-year media rights grant. What this means is that if any school leaves the Big 12 in the next six years, the Big 12 conference still retains media rights to broadcast games for that school until the six years is up, and retains the revenue as well. Since this means any team that departs would forfeit all media revenue for that period of time, it is considered much more binding than any formal agreement to simply not leave the conference.
• Additionally of note, this six year agreement extends beyond the current media rights deals in effect for the Big 12, meaning the conference is likely to be together when media negotiations are to occur.
• The schools also agreed to give all Tier-1 and Tier-2 TV rights to the Big 12, which should even out the revenue sharing. Tier-3 rights, including Texas and the Longhorn Network, appear to be remaining solely with the schools.
• The conference announced its expansion committee is officially re-activated.
• The Missouri chancellor admitted his school had talks with other conferences--but qualified by saying most all schools had been flirting with other conferences.

***UPDATE***

Pete Thamel of the New York Times reports being told different things about this agreement. Some schools report the media grant is a definite yes, while others have said it's an agreement in principal but they need approval from their respective boards. Looks like we'll still have to stay tuned to see if the Big 12 is actually secure. It's possible approval is an official formality that has already been assured, or perhaps we could still be somewhat far away from this getting nailed down.

MWC Power Rankings: Week 3

by Bradford Christensen


Boise State retains the top spot thanks to another clinical performance from Kellen Moore but we finally had a little movement this week. Ronnie Hillman was impressive yet again, Wyoming pulled out a decent road win and who thought UNLV could beat Hawaii?

1. #4 Boise State 2-0 (0-0)
Kwiatkowski's defense didn't play as well as I expected but Kellen Moore was resplendent, completing 32 of 42 passes for 455 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception en route to a 40-15 victory over Toledo.
This week: vs Tulsa 6:00 PM MT - CBS Sports Network

2. San Diego State 3-0 (0-0)
Ronnie Hillman was in beast mode on Saturday, carrying 32 times for 191 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 42-24 win against Washington State.
This week: @ #22 Michigan 10:00 AM MT - Big Ten Network

3. #20 TCU 2-1 (1-0)
TCU actually trailed Louisiana-Monroe at the end of the first quarter 17-14 but recovered to win 38-17. It looks Gary Patterson's defense still needs some work if they're giving up 17 first quarter points to the Warhawks.
This week: vs Portland State 12:00 PM MT

4. Air Force 1-1 (0-1)
The Falcons had the week off but were probably still trying to figure out what happened against TCU. Fortunately they should be able to knock the rust off on Saturday against an FCS opponent.
This week: vs Tennessee State 1:00 PM MT - The Mtn. 

5. Wyoming 3-0 (0-0)
The Pokes forced six turnovers and blocked the game-tying extra point with three seconds remaining to earn a road win at Bowling Green.
This week: vs #9 Nebraska 5:30 PM MT - Versus

6. Colorado State 2-1 (1-0)
CSU lost to Colorado 28-14 and only rushed for 67 yards in the process. Obviously it's never fun losing to your rival, but at least the Rams only lost by14 unlike another rivalry game played last weekend.
This week: @ Utah State 6:00 PM MT - KCSG 14/ESPN 3

7. UNLV 1-2 (0-0)
Did anyone predicted the Rebels to not only beat a decent Hawaii team but to blow them out 40-20? I sure didn't expect that but imagine it's a big boost for coach Hauck and the rebuilding program.
This week: vs Southern Utah 7:00 PM MT - The Mtn.

8. New Mexico 0-3 (0-1)
Losing your first three games by a combined score of 125-26 is never a good way to start the season. Fortunately for the Lobos and Mike Locksley, Saturday's game should be winnable.
This week: vs Sam Houston State 6:00 PM ET


Read more from Bradford at Drofdarb Sports

Week 3 Predictions

It's been a busy week for us here at The Upset. Between law school and moving apartments, we realize that there has been a lack of content. Thank you for sticking with us. It's already time for some more games, about which we will never complain. Here are our predictions for the weekend:

#4 BOISE STATE (1-0) @ TOLEDO (1-1)
Friday Sept 16 | 6:00 pm MT | ESPN

ZACH: Last year, the Rockets were blitzed in Boise 57-14. Last week, the Rockets were a correctly-read option away from beating Ohio State at the Horseshoe. Have things changed enough for a Friday night surprise? No. BOISE 37 TOLEDO 17
BRETT: I know Toledo almost beat the Buckeyes, but until Boise State makes me think otherwise...they are who we thought they were. BOISE 38 TOLEDO 21
DJ: BOISE 50 TOLEDO 10
BRADFORD: No doubt Toledo wide receiver/returner Eric Page is a baller but Boise State is better at nearly every position. The Rockets almost upset Ohio State last week but Petersen will use that to make sure the Broncos are ready. BOISE 45 TOLEDO 17

Week 2 Predictions

If you want an idea on what will be happening on most of the games this weekend, here's how our staffers see the games unfolding:


#21 MISSOURI (1-0) @ ARIZONA STATE (1-0)
Friday, Sept. 9 | 8:30 pm MT | ESPN

ZACH: I am going against my better judgment. Picking Arizona State to actually live up to its preseason ranking? I may very well regret this. ASU 27 MIZZOU 23
BRETT: I will never pick Arizona State in games like this. MIZZOU 30 ASU 26
DJ: This is a toughy. Arizona State has had so many injuries...but I just don't think Mizzou is #21 in the country. ASU 34 MIZZOU 31
BRADFORD: All I know about Missouri is that they only beat Miami (OH) 17-6 last week. All I know about Arizona State is that Dennis Erickson underachieves every season and LB Vontaze Burfict is a freak. No idea why I'm picking Erickson's team, but I think the Sun Devils win at home. ASU 24 MIZZOU 14

Week 2 Thursday Prediction

Another week of games, another weekend where we pretend like we know how each game will go. Alright, alright, we did pretty well last week. DJ and Brett both went 13-3, while Zach and Bradford both went 12-4.

Tonight's Thursday feature is a Pac-12/Big-12 showdown ... will these teams be in the same conference next year?

ARIZONA @ #9 OKLAHOMA STATE

Thursday, Sept 8 | 6:00 pm MT | ESPN

MWC Power Rankings: Week 1

by Bradford Christensen


Previous week: Preseason

With the first week of the 2011 season complete, here are your week 1 Mountain West Power Rankings:

1. Boise State 1-0 (0-0) - The Bronco defensive line dominated Georgia, sacking Aaron Muarry six times. Kellen Moore completed 28 of 34 passes for 261 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT en route to beating the Bulldogs 35-21. An impressive win by the Broncos and a mediocre week from the rest of the conference left me no choice but to move them to the top spot. This week: Bye

Texas-San Antonio debuts football with 31-3 win

The Texas-San Antonio debuted football on Saturday, and a record crowd for a startup program saw the Roadrunners sprint to a 31-3 victory over Northeastern State. The Alamodome was packed with 56,743 fans, breaking South Florida's startup debut record of 49,212.

Video below the jump...

Week 1 Saturday Predictions

A full, glorious slate of games washes over us this Saturday, the opening Saturday of college football. Here are our predictions for many of the matchups from around the West (in chronological order for your convenience).


UTAH STATE @ #23 AUBURN

10:00 am MT -- ESPN2

ZACH: Cam Newton is gone. Gus Malzahn remains. Utah State will compete. (See Oklahoma 2010). AUB 32 USU 17

BRETT: Robert Turbin's legs will dice through Auburn's D, but Malzahn will do worse to the Aggies. AUB 41 USU 24 
DJ: Utah State will get close, but it's not happening. AUB 46 USU 20
BRADFORD: The Aggies keep it close for awhile but Auburn pulls away in the second half at home. AUB 38 USU 17

Kiboshed in Kibbie: Idaho blasted in home opener

AP Photo - Dean Hare

Idaho went straight to the bag of tricks Thursday night, as on the second play of the game, a 51-yard double pass took the Vandals to Bowling Green's 25-yard line. Four plays later, the Vandals held a 7-0 lead on their home turf ... but that would be all the points Idaho would score for three full quarters. Bowling Green hit Idaho with an offensive blitz for the rest of the half on its way to a 32-15 win in Moscow.

Utah rides fast start to win over Montana State

AP Photo - Jim Urquhart

Utah burst out of the 2011 gate with 17 first-quarter points after two turnovers gave the Utes an eight-yard field and a 20-yard field. But after the game, Utah coaches were not pleased with the passing game despite a 27-10 victory over the Montana State Bobcats on Thursday night.

Opening Night Live Blog

Weeknight Predictions for Week 1

IT. IS. HERE.

After more scandals and conference expansion crises, we will have kickoff tonight. With a new season comes new opportunity for our staffers, with one set to claim the prize of best predictor. Last season, Zach claimed the crown with a red-hot 85% accuracy:

2010	W	L	%
Zach	112	20	.848
Brett	107	25	.811
DJ	88	21	.807

This year, we welcome new contributor Bradford Christensen into the mix. Let's get it on! Today we post predictions for Thursday and Friday action, with Saturday's slate to be posted on Friday.